The NGC was formally established in 1961 and
collects bag statistics from about 650 estates or shoots each year.
Each contributor completes an annual return form that provides the
means to record 19 mammal species, namely Rabbit Oryctolagus
cuniculus, Brown Hare Lepus europaeus, Mountain Hare
Lepus timidus, Roe Deer Capreolus capreolus, Red
Deer Cervus elaphus, Fallow Deer Dama dama,
Muntjac Muntiacus reevesi, Sika Deer Cervus
nippon, Chinese Water Deer Hydropotes inermis, Wild
Boar Sus scrofa, Hedgehog Erinaceus europaeus,
Grey Squirrel Sciurus carolinensis, Fox Vulpes
vulpes, Feral Cat Felis catus, Weasel Mustela
nivalis, Stoat Mustela erminea, Polecat Mustela
putorius, Mink Mustela vison, Brown Rat Rattus
norvegicus. All series are ongoing, with 2007 the last season
included here (throughout, the year denotes the year in which a
shooting season starts, e.g. 2007 refers to the 2007/08
season).
Species-specific annual bag indices are estimated using
appropriate statistical methods (generalised linear models with
Poisson error, logarithmic link function, log(shot area) and year
and shoot as factors). Percentage changes over the periods
1961-2007, 1981-2007, 1986-2007, 1991-2007, 1995-2007, 1996-2007,
2001-2007 are evaluated after smoothing out annual fluctuations in
bag indices (using generalised additive models). The 95% confidence
intervals of the estimates are obtained by bootstrapping. To allow
comparisons between years and sites, bags are expressed per unit
area.
At the UK level, mammal species coverage is good except for
Chinese Water Deer and Wild Boar. Coverage for England and Scotland
is very similar, with the additional exception of Mountain Hare in
England and Muntjac in Scotland. In Wales, species coverage is
adequate apart from Mountain Hare, Roe Deer, Red Deer, Fallow Deer,
Muntjac and Sika Deer.
At the UK level, the NGC data show significant medium-term
(post-1960) increases in bag sizes for Rabbit, Roe Deer, Red Deer,
Muntjac, Sika Deer, Grey Squirrel, Fox, Stoat, American Mink and
Brown Rat, and significant medium-term decreases in bag sizes for
Brown Hare, Hedgehog, Feral Cat and Weasel.
Temporal trends and spatial changes in distribution for
Hedgehog, Red Fox, Feral Cat and Brown Rat, calculated from 1122
estates submitting bag records between 1960 and 1999 inclusive for
one or more of the species, revealed a steady decline throughout
the UK for Hedgehog, a decrease mostly in Wales and the southern
half of England for Feral Cat, an increase in density across the UK
for Fox and an expansion of range in northern Scotland and Wales
for Brown Rat.