Results

The results from all the Tracking Mammals Partnership (TMP) Surveillance Schemes are summarised here and updated annually.

The TMP is currently reporting annual trends for 35 terrestrial mammals, 54% of our land mammal fauna. Of the species that has trend information, 14 species (40%) have increasing populations, 12 species (34%) have stable populations or do not show statistically significant trend, and seven species (20%) are declining. For two species the trends are unclear. Unfortunately, four of the increasing species - common rat, grey squirrel, sika deer and muntjac - are non-natives that cause problems for our native fauna.

The TMP does not, at present, provide any information on seals or cetaceans.

Historic information

Long term trend information is largely based on expert judgement or surveys of limited duration and suggests that 23% of terrestrial mammal species were increasing or possibly increasing, 2% were stable, 55% were declining or possibly declining, and 20% were unknown, or with insufficient data to make a judgement. More detail on historic trends can be obtained from the JNCC publication A Review of British Mammals.

Current information

Current trends for mammals cover the most recent ten year period for which data are available and are provided in a summary table. The table covers all UK resident species and provides some recommendations for species that have no current surveillance. More detailed information on each species can be found in the annual reports of the individual schemes in the surveillance and monitoring programme and in the TMP First Report on species status and population trends for UK mammals (published in 2005), which also contains information on historic trends. All reports are available in downloadable format in the reports section of the website.

Table 1 - TMP Mammal surveillance results to 2007

Species name	25-year trend (% change)	10-year trend (% change)*	Population estimate	IUCN status	Comments	Main survey
Insectivora (small mammals, hedgehogs and moles)
Hedgehog Erinaceus europaeus [native]	Decline (-44)	No statistically significant change (-23)	1,555,000 Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	n/a	A long-term decrease over last 25 years, but with no statistically significant change over the last 10 years. There is a significant decline (-51) in Wales over 1997-2007	NGC
Mole Talpa europaea [native]	Unsure	Increase?	31,000,000 (extrapolation from densities) Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	LC (1994)	Possible increase. Plots suggest increase until 2000 followed by a decline. Percentage change not available because of data analysis method	BBS
Chiroptera (bats)
Greater horseshoe bat Rhinolophus ferrumequinum [native]	No available data	Increase (32)	6,600 (underestimate) Last estimate in: 2005 ^[1]	NT (1994)	Significant increase from Colony Counts since 1999, however caution required in interpreting trend. No significant trend from Hibernation Survey	NBMP
Lesser horseshoe bat Rhinolophus hipposideros [native]	No available data	Increase (41)	18,000 Last estimate in: 2005 ^[1]	LC (2001)	Significant increase in last eight years in both Colony Count and Hibernation Survey	NBMP
Whiskered bat Myotis mystacinus [native]	No available data	Stable (20)	64,000 Last estimate in: 1995 (GB) 1999 (NI) ^[5] [9]	LC (1994)	The Hibernation Survey trend has remained fairly stable since 1999 although confidence intervals are quite wide	NBMP
Brandt's bat Myotis brandtii [native]	No available data	Stable (20)	30,000 Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	LC (1994)	The Hibernation Survey trend has remained fairly stable since 1999 although confidence intervals are quite wide	NBMP
Natterer's bat Myotis nattereri [native]	No available data	Increase (65)	148,000 Last estimate in: 1995 (GB) 1999 (NI) ^[5] [9]	LC (1994)	Increasing populations in last eight years from Hibernation survey. No significant trends from Colony Counts	NBMP
Daubenton's bat Myotis daubentonii [native]	No available data	Stable (11)	560,000 Last estimate in: 1995 (GB) 1999 (NI) ^[5] [9]	LC (1994)	Moderate increase in populations from Waterway and Hibernation Surveys, but neither is quite statistically significant	NBMP
Serotine Eptesicus serotinus [native]	No available data	No statistically significant change (27)	15,000 Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	LC (1994)	The Colony Count and the Field Survey show level trends. The latter has wide confidence intervals	NBMP
Noctule Nyctalus noctula [native]	No available data	No statistically significant change (30)	50,000 Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	LC (1994)	The index has risen sharply in the last year but confidence intervals are wide and this result should be treated with caution at present	NBMP
Common pipistrelle Pipistrellus pipistrellus [native]	No available data	Increase (65)	2,430,000 (underestimate) Last estimate in: 2005 (GB) 1999 (NI) ^[1] [9]	LC (2001)	Significantly increasing populations over last eight years recorded in the Field Survey. Colony Counts indicate a significant decline of 40%, but Field Survey more robust because of behaviour of the species	NBMP
Soprano pipistrelle Pipistrellus pygmaeus [native]	No available data	Stable (-16)	1,300,000 Last estimate in: 2005 ^[1]	n/a	Field Survey indicates fairly stable populations. Significant decline of 31% from Colony Counts should be treated with caution due to colony mobility. Data from Field Survey considered more robust	NBMP
Brown long-eared bat Plecotus auritus [native]	No available data	Stable (6)	245,000 Last estimate in: 1995 (GB) 1999 (NI) ^[5] [9]	LC (1994)	Hibernation Survey indicates fairly stable populations over last eight years. Marginally significant increase from Colony Count which should be treated with caution at present.	NBMP
*Lagomorpha* (rabbits and hares)
Rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus [non native]	Increase (140)	Decline (-31 to -38)	37,000,000 Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	LC (1994)	A long- term increase over 25 years, but with significant declines recorded over the last 10 years, especially in Scotland (-79 to -64)	NGC BBS
Brown hare Lepus europaeus [non native]	Increase (37)	No statistically significant change (19 to 3)	800,000 (estimate) Last estimate in: 1996 ^[6]	LC (1994)	Unclear trend. Both the 25-year and the 10-year UK trends are not statistically significant.	NGC BBS
Mountain hare Lepus timidus [native]	Increase/cycling (34)	Decline (-18 to -56)	360,000 Last estimate in: 2005 ^[1]	LC (1994)	No long-term significant changes detected in this species in NGC, due to cycling populations . However, 10 year trend shows a non-significant decline in BBS	NGC BBS
Irish hare Lepus timidus hibernicus [native]	Decline	No statistically significant change	43,700 Last estimate in: 2005 ^[11]	n/a	Trends (2002-2009) indicate stable but fluctuating populations	IHS
*Rodentia* (voles, mice, squirrels and dormouse)
Grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis [non native]	Increase (122)	Increase (49)	2,520,000 Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	n/a	Long-term increase over last 25 years, with a more rapid increase over the last 10 years	NGC
Water vole Arvicola terrestris [native]	Decline	Decline	Unknown	LC (1994)	Long term decline has continued in last ten years. Percentage change not known at present	WWBS BBS
House mouse Mus domesticus [non native]	Decline/ Stable	No statistically significant change	5,000,000 (estimate) Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	n/a	Stable populations in England indicated by the English House Condition Survey results	EHCS
Common rat Rattus norvegicus [non native]	Increase (95)	Increase (88)	6,790,000 (underestimate) Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	LC (1994)	A long-term increase over last 25 years and continuing more rapidly over last 10 years	NGC BBS
Hazel dormouse Muscardinus avellanarius [native]	Decline	Decline (-24)	45,000 Last estimate in: 2005 ^[1]	NT (1994)	Indications of a continued decline	NDMP
*Carnivora* (foxes, mustelids and cats)
Fox Vulpes vulpes [native]	Increase (71)	Increase (6)/decline (-26)	225,000 (in rural areas; in urban areas: 33,000) Last estimate in: 2004 (rural) 1995 (urban) ^{[12] [5]}	LC (2001)	Unclear trend. A long-term increase over last 25 years has stabilised over last 10 years according to NGC, but BBS records a non-significant decline	NGC BBS
Stoat Mustela erminea [native]	Increase (38)	Increase (17)	462,000 Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	LC (1994)	A long-term increase over last 25 years, with continued increase over the last 10 years	NGC BBS
Weasel Mustela nivalis [native]	Increase (24)	Increase (39)	450,000 Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	LC (1994)	A long-term increase over last 25 years, with continued increase over the last 10 years	NGC BBS
Polecat Mustela putorius [native]	No statistically significant change (-12)	No statistically significant change (6)	63,240 Last estimate in: 2004 ^[2]	LC (1994)	No significant 10-year trend at a UK level. There are indications of increasing distribution and populations across England between 1992 and 2007	NGC
American Mink Mustela vison [non native]	Decline (-48)	Decline (-37)	110,000 Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	n/a	Historic increases have changed to declines over the last 25 years that have continued over the last 10 years	NGC
Badger Meles meles [native]	Increase	Increase	250,000 Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	LC (1994)	Increase over the last 10 years. Plots suggest increase ntil 2004 followed by a decrease. Percentage change not available because of data analysis method	BBS
Otter Lutra lutra [native]	Increase	Increase	10,395 (underestimate) Last estimate in: 2004 ^{[3] [7] [10]}	NT (2001)	Continual increase over the past 25 years, increase in the last ten years. Otters continue to expand their range into the few areas in England where they are rare or absent and the populations to continue to increase to carrying capacity.	NOS
Feral/domestic cat Felis catus [non native]	Decline (-24)	Decline (-16)	Unknown	n/a	A decline over last 25 years, with continued increase over the last 10 years	NGC
*Artiodactyla* (deer, boar, feral sheep and feral goats)
Red deer Cervus elaphus [native]	Increase (50)	No statistically significant change (4)	360,000 (approximate) Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	LC (1994)	A long-term increase over last 25 years, but with no statistically significant change over the last 10 years	NGC BBS GBDS
Sika deer Cervus nippon [non native]	Increase (86)	Increase (37)	11,500 Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	n/a	Long-term increase in last 20 years (25 year trends not available). Ten year trend indicates continued increase	NGC BBS GBDS
Fallow deer Dama dama [non native]	Increase (90)	No statistically significant changee (23 to 50)	100,000 (estimate) Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	n/a	A long-term increase over last 25 years, but with no statistically significant change over the last 10 years	NGC BBS GBDS
Roe deer Capreolus capreolus [native]	Increase (96)	Increase (27 to 49)	500,000 (estimate) Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	LC (1994)	A long-term increase over last 25 years, with continued increase over the last 10 years	NGC BBS GBDS
Reeve's Muntjac Muntiacus reevesi [non native]	Increase (1183)	Increase (130)	52,000 Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]	n/a	A long-term increase over last 25 years, with continued increase over the last 10 years	NGC BBS GBDS

Species name

25-year trend

(% change)

10-year trend

(% change)*

Population estimate

IUCN status

Comments

Main survey

Insectivora (small mammals, hedgehogs and moles)

Hedgehog
Erinaceus europaeus

[native]

Decline (-44)

No statistically significant change (-23)

1,555,000

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

n/a

A long-term decrease over last 25 years, but with no statistically significant change over the last 10 years. There is a significant decline (-51) in Wales over 1997-2007

NGC

Mole
Talpa europaea

[native]

Unsure

Increase?

31,000,000

(extrapolation from densities)

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

LC (1994)

Possible increase. Plots suggest increase until 2000 followed by a decline. Percentage change not available because of data analysis method

BBS

Chiroptera (bats)

Greater horseshoe bat
Rhinolophus ferrumequinum

[native]

No available data

Increase (32)

6,600

(underestimate)

Last estimate in: 2005 ^[1]

NT (1994)

Significant increase from Colony Counts since 1999, however caution required in interpreting trend. No significant trend from Hibernation Survey

NBMP

Lesser horseshoe bat
Rhinolophus hipposideros

[native]

No available data

Increase (41)

18,000

Last estimate in: 2005 ^[1]

LC (2001)

Significant increase in last eight years in both Colony Count and Hibernation Survey

NBMP

Whiskered bat

Myotis mystacinus

[native]

No available data

Stable (20)

64,000

Last estimate in: 1995 (GB) 1999 (NI) ^[5]
[9]

LC (1994)

The Hibernation Survey trend has remained fairly stable since 1999 although confidence intervals are quite wide

NBMP

Brandt's bat

Myotis brandtii

[native]

No available data

Stable (20)

30,000

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

LC (1994)

The Hibernation Survey trend has remained fairly stable since 1999 although confidence intervals are quite wide

NBMP

Natterer's bat

Myotis nattereri

[native]

No available data

Increase (65)

148,000

Last estimate in: 1995 (GB) 1999 (NI) ^[5]
[9]

LC (1994)

Increasing populations in last eight years from Hibernation survey. No significant trends from Colony Counts

NBMP

Daubenton's bat

Myotis daubentonii

[native]

No available data

Stable (11)

560,000

Last estimate in: 1995 (GB) 1999 (NI) ^[5]
[9]

LC (1994)

Moderate increase in populations from Waterway and Hibernation Surveys, but neither is quite statistically significant

NBMP

Serotine

Eptesicus serotinus

[native]

No available data

No statistically significant change (27)

15,000

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

LC (1994)

The Colony Count and the Field Survey show level trends. The latter has wide confidence intervals

NBMP

Noctule

Nyctalus noctula

[native]

No available data

No statistically significant change (30)

50,000

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

LC (1994)

The index has risen sharply in the last year but confidence intervals are wide and this result should be treated with caution at present

NBMP

Common pipistrelle

Pipistrellus pipistrellus

[native]

No available data

Increase (65)

2,430,000

(underestimate)

Last estimate in: 2005 (GB) 1999 (NI) ^[1]
[9]

LC (2001)

Significantly increasing populations over last eight years recorded in the Field Survey. Colony Counts indicate a significant decline of 40%, but Field Survey more robust because of behaviour of the species

NBMP

Soprano pipistrelle

Pipistrellus pygmaeus

[native]

No available data

Stable (-16)

1,300,000

Last estimate in: 2005 ^[1]

n/a

Field Survey indicates fairly stable populations. Significant decline of 31% from Colony Counts should be treated with caution due to colony mobility. Data from Field Survey considered more robust

NBMP

Brown long-eared bat

Plecotus auritus

[native]

No available data

Stable (6)

245,000

Last estimate in: 1995 (GB) 1999 (NI) ^[5]
[9]

LC (1994)

Hibernation Survey indicates fairly stable populations over last eight years. Marginally significant increase from Colony Count which should be treated with caution at present.

NBMP

Lagomorpha (rabbits and hares)

Rabbit

Oryctolagus cuniculus

[non native]

Increase (140)

Decline (-31 to -38)

37,000,000

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

LC (1994)

A long- term increase over 25 years, but with significant declines recorded over the last 10 years, especially in Scotland (-79 to -64)

NGC

BBS

Brown hare

Lepus europaeus

[non native]

Increase (37)

No statistically significant change (19 to 3)

800,000

(estimate)

Last estimate in: 1996 ^[6]

LC (1994)

Unclear trend. Both the 25-year and the 10-year UK trends are not statistically significant.

NGC

BBS

Mountain hare

Lepus timidus

[native]

Increase/cycling (34)

Decline (-18 to -56)

360,000

Last estimate in: 2005 ^[1]

LC (1994)

No long-term significant changes detected in this species in NGC, due to cycling populations . However, 10 year trend shows a non-significant decline in BBS

NGC

BBS

Irish hare

Lepus timidus hibernicus

[native]

Decline

No statistically significant change

43,700

Last estimate in: 2005 ^[11]

n/a

Trends (2002-2009) indicate stable but fluctuating populations

IHS

Rodentia (voles, mice, squirrels and dormouse)

Grey squirrel

Sciurus carolinensis

[non native]

Increase (122)

Increase (49)

2,520,000

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

n/a

Long-term increase over last 25 years, with a more rapid increase over the last 10 years

NGC

Water vole

Arvicola terrestris

[native]

Decline

Unknown

LC (1994)

Long term decline has continued in last ten years. Percentage change not known at present

WWBS

BBS

House mouse

Mus domesticus

[non native]

Decline/ Stable

No statistically significant change

5,000,000

(estimate)

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

n/a

Stable populations in England indicated by the English House Condition Survey results

EHCS

Common rat

Rattus norvegicus

[non native]

Increase (95)

Increase (88)

6,790,000

(underestimate)

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

LC (1994)

A long-term increase over last 25 years and continuing more rapidly over last 10 years

NGC

BBS

Hazel dormouse

Muscardinus avellanarius

[native]

Decline

Decline (-24)

45,000

Last estimate in: 2005 ^[1]

NT (1994)

Indications of a continued decline

NDMP

Carnivora (foxes, mustelids and cats)

Fox

Vulpes vulpes

[native]

Increase (71)

Increase (6)/decline (-26)

225,000

(in rural areas; in urban areas: 33,000)

Last estimate in: 2004 (rural) 1995 (urban) ^{[12] [5]}

LC (2001)

Unclear trend. A long-term increase over last 25 years has stabilised over last 10 years according to NGC, but BBS records a non-significant decline

NGC

BBS

Stoat

Mustela erminea

[native]

Increase (38)

Increase (17)

462,000

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

LC (1994)

A long-term increase over last 25 years, with continued increase over the last 10 years

NGC

BBS

Weasel

Mustela nivalis

[native]

Increase (24)

Increase (39)

450,000

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

LC (1994)

A long-term increase over last 25 years, with continued increase over the last 10 years

NGC

BBS

Polecat

Mustela putorius

[native]

No statistically significant change (-12)

No statistically significant change (6)

63,240

Last estimate in: 2004 ^[2]

LC (1994)

No significant 10-year trend at a UK level. There are indications of increasing distribution and populations across England between 1992 and 2007

NGC

American Mink

Mustela vison

[non native]

Decline (-48)

Decline (-37)

110,000

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

n/a

Historic increases have changed to declines over the last 25 years that have continued over the last 10 years

NGC

Badger

Meles meles

[native]

Increase

250,000

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

LC (1994)

Increase over the last 10 years. Plots suggest increase ntil 2004 followed by a decrease. Percentage change not available because of data analysis method

BBS

Otter

Lutra lutra

[native]

Increase

10,395

(underestimate)

Last estimate in: 2004 ^{[3] [7]
[10]}

NT (2001)

Continual increase over the past 25 years, increase in the last ten years. Otters continue to expand their range into the few areas in England where they are rare or absent and the populations to continue to increase to carrying capacity.

NOS

Feral/domestic cat

Felis catus

[non native]

Decline (-24)

Decline (-16)

Unknown

n/a

A decline over last 25 years, with continued increase over the last 10 years

NGC

Artiodactyla (deer, boar, feral sheep and feral goats)

Red deer

Cervus elaphus

[native]

Increase (50)

No statistically significant change (4)

360,000

(approximate)

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

LC (1994)

A long-term increase over last 25 years, but with no statistically significant change over the last 10 years

NGC

BBS

GBDS

Sika deer

Cervus nippon

[non native]

Increase (86)

Increase (37)

11,500

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

n/a

Long-term increase in last 20 years (25 year trends not available). Ten year trend indicates continued increase

NGC

BBS

GBDS

Fallow deer

Dama dama

[non native]

Increase (90)

No statistically significant changee (23 to 50)

100,000

(estimate)

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

n/a

A long-term increase over last 25 years, but with no statistically significant change over the last 10 years

NGC

BBS

GBDS

Roe deer

Capreolus capreolus

[native]

Increase (96)

Increase (27 to 49)

500,000

(estimate)

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

LC (1994)

A long-term increase over last 25 years, with continued increase over the last 10 years

NGC

BBS

GBDS

Reeve's Muntjac

Muntiacus reevesi

[non native]

Increase (1183)

Increase (130)

52,000

Last estimate in: 1995 ^[5]

n/a

A long-term increase over last 25 years, with continued increase over the last 10 years

NGC

BBS

GBDS

Bold text indicates statistically significant change

* Sometimes more than one survey result is given, where results differ markedly

Sources for population estimates

[1]	BATTERSBY, J (Ed.) & Tracking Mammals Partnership 2005. UK Mammals: Species Status and Population Trends. JNCC/Tracking Mammals Partnership.
[2]	BIRKS, J.D.S. 2004. Unpublished data.
[3]	CRAWFORD, A. 2003. Fourth Otter Survey of England 2000–2002. Environment Agency, Bristol. Available to download from the Environment Agency website (www.environmentagency.gov.uk/subjects/conservation/483249/?version=1&lang=_e)
[4]	HARRIS, S. and YALDEN, D.W. (Eds) 2008. Mammals of the British Isles handbook (4th edition).The Mammal Society, Southampton
[5]	HARRIS, S., MORRIS, P., WRAY, S. & YALDEN, D. 1995. A review of British Mammals: population estimates and conservation status of British mammals other than cetaceans. JNCC, Peterborough.
[6]	HUTCHINGS, M.R. and HARRIS, S. 1996. The current status of the brown hare (Lepus europaeus) in Britain. JNCC, Peterborough.
[7]	JONES, T. & JONES, D. 2004. Otter Survey of Wales 2002. Environment Agency, Bristol. Available to download from the Environment Agency website (www.environmentagency. gov. uk/ subjects/conservation/483249/?version=1&lang=_e)
[8]	MALLON, D., WHEELER, P., WHITELY, D. & YALDEN, D.W. (2003) Mountain Hares in the Peak District. British Wildlife, 15, 110-116.
[9]	RUSS, J.M. 1999. The Microchiroptera of Northern Ireland: community composition, habitat associations and ultrasound. Unpublished PhD thesis. Queen’s University, Belfast.
[10]	STRACHAN, R. 2007. National survey of otter Lutra lutra distribution in Scotland 2003-04. Scottish Natural Heritage Commissioned Report No. 211 (ROAME No. F02AC309).
[11]	TOSH, D., MARQUES, A.T., BROWN, S., PRESTON, J., REID, N., MONTGOMERY, I., BORCHERS, D. L., BUCKLAND, S. T., & MCDONALD, R. 2005. Northern Ireland Irish Hare Survey 2005. Environment & Heritage Service, Northern Ireland/Queen’s University, Belfast.
[12]	WEBBON C.C., BAKER, P.J. and HARRIS, S. 2004. Faecal density counts for monitoring changes in red fox numbers in rural Britain. Journal of Applied Ecology 2004, 41, 768–779